Coulson Aviation did not provide a pre-flight risk assessment for their fire-fighting large air tanker crews. This would provide predefined criteria to ensure consistent and objective decision-making with accepting or rejecting tasks, including factors relating to crew, environment, aircraft and external pressures.
The ATSB acknowledges the introduction of a pre-flight risk assessment tool for the Coulson Aviation fixed-wing aerial firefighting operations and the benefits this provides by applying a systematic process to decision making.
However, the ATSB notes that the tool does not consider task rejections, particularly those related to weather. The New South Wales Rural Fire Service has also introduced task rejection procedures that now requires the rationale for a rejection to be communicated to other aircraft operating in the affected area.
It is crucial that crews can differentiate between a low-risk and high-risk flight during the planning stage. The consideration of this information in the assessment tool would allow for a more informed overall risk profile. In turn, this would allow crews to make a more informed decision on whether to accept or reject a tasking.
In September 2021, Coulson Aviation advised the ATSB that they had introduced a flight risk assessment tool into their fixed-wing aerial firefighting operations to be completed, at a minimum, prior to the first tasking of the day.
The ATSB acknowledges that Coulson Aviation introduced a pre-flight risk assessment tool into their fixed-wing operations. However, this tool did not consider all foreseeable external factors that could elevate the risk of a flight, such as weather-related task rejections or cancellations by others, which was considered the highest risk factor by the Helicopter Association International. Without this factor, the overall risk profile for a tasking, or essentially the safety of the flight, could be underestimated by crews. Therefore, as it is critical that crews can differentiate between a low-risk and high‑risk flight in the already elevated risk environment of aerial firefighting, the ATSB issues the following safety recommendation to Coulson Aviation to take further action to reduce the risk of this safety issue to low as reasonably practicable.
The Australian Transport Safety Bureau recommends that Coulson Aviation take further action to incorporate foreseeable external factors into their pre-flight assessment tool to ensure the overall risk profile of a tasking can be consistently assessed by crews.
The ATSB does not define the term “foreseeable external factors”. Coulson Aviation’s Flight Risk Assessment Tool (‘FRAT’) was developed to take into
account both internal and external factors e.g., aircraft serviceability, crew currency, operational aspects, weather and environmental conditions expected in the planned fire zone. Aspects such as the rejection of a tasking by other operators is not a reliable indicator of risk as Coulson would not be able to specify what information, related to the risk context, led to the decision by the other operator to reject the tasking.
Coulson cannot be certain of what factors are considered by other operators in reaching a decision to accept or reject a tasking. These factors, which could include considerations such as crew fatigue, suitability of aircraft or equipment and availability of lead aircraft, would have no bearing on Coulson’s decision to accept or reject a tasking and should not be factored into its Flight Risk Assessment Tool. In the circumstances, Coulson does not agree with the ATSB’s recommendation to “incorporate foreseeable external factors into their pre-flight assessment tool”.
The ATSB acknowledges that not all factors that lead to a task rejection necessarily increase risk for other aircraft. However, it was noted that the New South Wales Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS) introduced task rejection procedures that now require the rationale for a rejection to be communicated to other aircraft operating in the affected area.
It was confirmed by the ATSB in January 2023 that Coulson Aviation was aware of the changes implemented by the NSW RFS, and that the reason for a task rejection will be communicated. Coulson Aviation considered that rejections due to weather was not a factor that could be assigned a specific risk value.
However, the consideration of such a foreseeable external factor would ensure it is assessed in combination with any other indicators in a tool that would show the cumulative effects of these factors. This would allow crews to make a more informed decision on the risk profile of the flight. This is particularly important when it is related to adverse weather, which is a known high-risk factor.
